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University futures:  Wikipedia  uni, core-periphery reversed, incremental managerialism or bliss  for all?

Sohail Inayatullah
Sohail Inayatullah  is Professor at the Graduate Institute of Futures  Studies, Tamkang University,
Taiwan, and at the Centre  of Policing, Intelligence and Counter-terrorism, Macquarie University, Sydney,  Australia and the University of the Sunshine Coast, Mooloolaba, Australia.

Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to overview the futures  of the university by analyzing critical drivers.  It also aims to assess drivers  identified  a decade ago on university futures.  Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews drivers, trends and  scenarios. Findings – The paper finds first, globalization will likely continue but innovation  will move to Chindia.  Second, democratization has resulted by not as imagined a decade ago,  rather, peer-to-peer or web 2.0 has  changed the  game. Three  new  scenarios are  articulated: Wikipedia  university;  core-periphery reversed and incremental managerialism. Bliss for all remains  an outlier. Practical implications – Asian-Pacific universities instead of adopting the used future of the core  will find it wiser to innovate  and  create new visions as well as to develop new global  ranking  systems. Social implications – Traditional universities are the likely dinosaurs unable to thrive in a dramatically
changing world. Increasing inequity  in traditional western universities  will likely further devalue higher
education. New models of inclusion are required. Originality/value – The paper articulates new scenarios of the future, and  assesses trends identified a decade ago.  It provides a strategy for university administrators to navigate the challenges ahead. Keywords Universities,  Scenarios, Higher education, Foresight, Rise of Chindia,  Peer-to-peer, Wikipedia,  Futures  studies Paper type Conceptual paper in  the  University  in Transformation  (Inayatullah   and  Gidley,  2000),  an  anthology of articles  on the futures  of the university published ten years ago, we  – Jennifer  Gidley and  I – identified four critical drivers  creating the futures of the university. In this essay, the  drivers  are  reviewed and  assessed as  to how likely they are  to continue to shape the plausible futures of the university. The essay concludes with alternative university scenarios.


Globalisation of education

The first driver identified was globalization, in its current neo-liberal form (and there are many types of globalization – spiritual, ecological/gaian, and  utopian, for example), defining  has  been a resistance by states to continue to subsidize education (Odin and  Manicas, 2004). This has meant a policy shift from considering education less as an investment and more as a cost  (Magna Charta Observatory, 2010).  Specifically  it has  led  to categorizing parts  of higher education as  an export  (in Australia,  for example, in Brisbane (Brisbane: Australia’s New World City, n.d.)  and  Melbourne (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and  Social Research, n.d.),  education is the  largest export,  surpassing tourism)  and  aspects as  an expense. The  export-based  curriculum  areas  –  seeking to  bring  in students from  the Asia-Pacific,  particularly   India   –   tend   to  be   in  the  ‘‘real-world’’  areas  of  engineering, business,  information   technologies  and   vocational studies.  When   they   are   linked   to immigration policy ((The) Sydney  Morning Herald, 2010a) they have especially grown, while other areas of knowledge such as philosophy and  even languages, have been subjected to current  market  forces and  cutbacks and  thus  have  declined. Indeed, in the context of the continuing global  financial  crisis,  just recently  the  Australian government announced that entry requirements would  be  relaxed for students  wishing  to study  in Australia.  As well, post-study work rights would be enhanced (Anderson and  Mather,  2011). The overall reason for education – as a civilizing force,  as part of humanity’s treasure, as a long term investment in children,  and  as a right to dissent against the prevailing  paradigm- has been put aside for shorter term market concerns. In the last ten years, this trend - and the drivers  creating it – has  not subsided but intensified. These trends are likely to continue. What is likely to change is the direction  of the exports. With the rise of Chindia ((The) Sydney  Morning Herald, 2010b  (for a more skeptical view, see Tharoor, 2010)), we can  easily imagine  a future where  Chinese and  Indian students stay at home,  learning  from local outposts of Western universities (English.news.cn, 2011) as  well as  Chindia’s own educational  institutions.  Over  a  period of twenty  years we can  imagine  Western students moving to the Asia-Pacific  for higher education (and  not only for language learning). While this may seem difficult to imagine  now, if we go back 20 years, it would have been difficult to imagine  the colossal economic rise of China (foreign reserves at 3.2 trillion dollars in 2011) (Anderlini, 2010), East Asia (for the first time Asia has  more millionaires than Europe)  (Rand  Corporation, 2008; Terradaily, 2010) and  segments of India (Tharoor, 2007). Education for Chindia  and  much  of East Asia remains an investment. Not a cost.


Virtualization

The second trend identified was the virtualization of education. With fewer funds available for bricks and mortar and the logic of increasing the number of students, ministries of education and   universities (led  by  India,  Indonesia, Turkey,  South  Korea,  China  and   other  Asian nations)  (International Telecommunications  Union (ITU), 1999)  have  focused on using  the Web to deliver education. While the savings are high  – indeed, in the USA, one  university, National Louis University, has even used the ‘‘Groupon’’ approach, offering a discount when at least  fifteen people had  signed up for the course (Chen,  2011)  – and  outreach stunning, what  has  partially  hampered the  success of distance delivery  has  been the  mindset  of university administrators and academics. They still remain in the expert-driven feudal model.  That  said,  new  applications; indeed, ‘‘an  app for everything’’  is  the new  analogy for the futures  of instruction. New  applications are  changing  the  nature  of pedagogy and  with exponential technological advancement we can see virtual becoming more like face-to-face. Costs will continue to go down (and  climate  change/peak oil/security  concerns are likely to provide  further incentives to virtualize). Innovation  will continue to find ways for academics and students to become more comfortable in future virtualized ‘‘classrooms’’. Over the long term  the   current  distinctions between  virtual  and   real  will likely  disappear  and   we, particularly   digital[1]   and   genomic  natives  (the   double-helix  children),   will  become comfortable with different types of reality.


Democratization – peer  to peer

The third trend  identified was the democratization of education. By this we meant enhanced student participation as well as a flattening generally of the university. Over the last ten years, this has  occurred but not expected. The peer to peer web platform  has  been the greatest flattening  process – from Wikipedia to Wikileaks to www.ratemyprofessor.com[2]. However,   and   this   is  crucial,   democratization  while  partially  recreating   who   creates knowledge, has  not empowered students or academics in formal university or high school  settings. The opposite has  occurred. First, there  has  been a backlash against increased power  of those below  –  a  desire to return  to the  good old  days of dominator authority. Second, as universities have adopted the neo-liberal globalization model,  creating profits or merely surviving has meant retiring expensive professors and hiring cheaper younger PhDs. And, critically, the hiring has not been ‘‘full-time’’ but casual (no tenure, payment per course, no office space). In Australia,  ‘‘casualization’’  is  now 60 percent of the  higher  education workforce  (Luyt et al., 2008). Comments Robin May who is currently completing her PhD on the university workforce, ‘‘You lead a very uncertain life being casual . . . you are literally hired by the  hour,  resulting  in disengagement from  the  regular  university  life’’  (Whyte,  2011). Comparing the university to the garment industry, Patricia Kelly calls casual lecturers ‘‘piece workers  of the mind’’ (Kelly, 2011).  And this is not a surprise. Globalization in its neoliberal variant ‘‘happens in an environment that is increasingly hierarchical, unequal, and insecure,’’ and  it is gendered, women bear the brunt of inequity (Milojevic, 2006 (for a feminist view on educational futures,   see Milojevic, 2005)).  Experimental courses  (new  web  courses, in particular) especially futures studies, gender studies and peace studies for example – have emerged by paying  academics near volunteer wages. For those at the bottom pay scale, the problem becomes that of loyalty not just to the particular  university (‘‘why should  I stay loyal when I am paid peanuts’’) but to the university model of education itself, that is, ‘‘why should  I not globalize myself and  receive  the benefits of globalization.’’ As loyalty breaks down  we can anticipate far more innovation in the tertiary sector. This could include  new academic run cooperative  universities  and   alternative   universities  (with  either   particular   ideological leanings  or  broader  missions)  attracting  younger   academics  along   different   career trajectories. Along with some able to innovate, there will be many who will prefer, rightly, if not wisely, a politics of grievance in the university itself. As cutbacks continue, we can anticipate a far more challenging labor environment. Returning to the good old days where education was a fully subsidized by the nation-state is currently unlikely but  this  does not  necessarily mean retreating  from  the  dignity  of the academic and  the nobility of the academic profession. Alternative futures  are possible. For elite professors, the  physical university  and  particular  university  branding will be  far less  important. In terms  of phases, a  possible trajectory  would  be  from the  lower run  casual academic to the traditional tenure  track academic to a portfolio academic approach (being linked to a number of universities) and  finally to a model  wherein  the Professor becomes a brand unto him or herself.  In each phase, agency is enhanced and  the weight of structure reduced.

Ways  of knowing  – knowledge on the edges

Our fourth driver or trend was multiculturalism in terms of new ways of knowing becoming an acceptable as part of pedagogy (Inayatullah  et al., 2006; Bussey et al., 2008; Sardar, 1999; Sidhu,  2004).  There  is no easy way to measure this but certainly  the  rise of the  web  with multiple languages and  platforms  has  created more  spaces then  traditional  hierarchies of knowledge. The rise of Chindia is slowly changing the game as well. But far more impressive has  been technology itself as  a way of mediating reality. We imagined far more diversity in knowledge  regimes – indigenous ways of knowing, spirituality, integrated models of understanding. While these continue to mushroom, it is technology as a way of knowing that has  been the disruptive, if not transformative, factor. With at least  five billion (Rebello,  2010) mobile phones now in global circulation and 6.07 billion estimated by the end of 2011 (Talal, 2011) and more of these becoming smart, pedagogy will keep on jumping the boundaries of the real into the differently real.

The disruption

As always,  leaving  behind factory  models of learning  and  teaching will be  crucial  as  we move to a more 24/7 virtualized  and  globalized world. Focusing on ensuring equity and  life wide and life long learning for those academics who do not become brands unto themselves or have  portfolio careers, will be  critical in the quest toward  educational equity.

And, if national accreditation does break down or become porous, the 2.5 plus trillion dollar education industry  (Edarabia, n.d.)  will be  ripe for a major creative destruction. It will likely not be Google, Wikipedia or Facebook that will become the new Nalanda, Nanjing, Al-Azhar, Al Karaouine, Bologna, or Oxford or . . . but someone else who will create the new platform for the pedagogies of the future. Is it wiser for nation-states to hold on to national accreditation, to regionalize as with the EU (and  future Asian Union), or attempt to create something truly novel and lead  the world by creating an institutional jump? Or . . .?

 Alternative futures

These questions are  best answered through  a description of alternate higher educational futures.  Three futures are suggested. They are: Wikipedia Uni, Core-periphery reversed and  Incremental managerialism.


Wikipedia university

In the first scenario, two shifts are central. First is a far greater flattening  of the university  – its structure as  well as  who teaches and  the nature  of teaching. While this future includes tremendous global  educational diversity, one  apt phrase is ‘‘the return of Bologna.’’ In the original University of Bologna model, students hired the professors. Instructors even needed permission to leave  the  city. The  second shift is the  reduction or elimination  of national accreditation  by  a  select group of nations. While many  nations  refuse to follow –  citing national  security,  economic development and  fear of being overwhelmed by new wealthy corporate entrants – a few nations  still experiment. Porous  national accreditation creates a major disruption leading to a social ecology of flatter global  universities. The result is essentially Wikipedia University. There is still room for elite professors who ensure quality control as well as providing prestige. Dominator hierarchy is replaced by functional  hierarchy. Quality gains are dramatic as  the wisdom  of the crowds, plus guidance by elite professors who are induced by salaries and innovation, lead the way. Income   is  generated  through  student fees   and   advertising  on  software   and   hardware applications.  Large  corporate information  providers such as  Google  jump  in. Apple  and Android  applications play  a  dramatic role  in localizing  the  global  Wikipedia  University. Application   developers   migrate   in   droves  to  this   new   educational   platform.   New technologies develop that make  virtual feel more and more  similar to face-to-face. These include   holograms and   group sharing  of  information  (Cloud  2.0),  beyond our  current understandings – learning becomes dynamic and  evolves quickly. This does not mean that space for traditional universities disappears. If anything this world is characterized, particularly  in the  first 20 years, as  a  social  ecology in  flux. However,  the dinosaurs are  the  traditional  universities. The ability to adapt, determine the nature  of the new  ecological landscape, reinvent  one’s core functions, allow for emergence, and  allow stakeholders  –  students, in particular  –  to  help  mould  the  emerging future  is  a  great advantage. Traditional  universities are  unwilling to adapt and  do  not use  stakeholders to create, as they see themselves as  the experts, indeed, they are even  unable to notice  that they exist in a rapidly changing knowledge social  ecology. By 2050,  the feudal  nature  of university education is finally overthrown  and  along with it the factory  model  of learning.  Universities  by 2050  are  unrecognizable to the  visitor from the twentieth  century.

Core-periphery reversed

In  the  second  scenario, core-periphery relations   are  reversed (Huffington  Post,  2011; Lawrence, 2010). Phase one of this is currently occurring in China and India with the reverse brain  drain.  Phase two is the massive investments in education in China  in particular,  but Asia generally (Japan,  Singapore, South  Korea,  India,  for example). Over  time,  research leads to a  positive  and  creative  innovation  cycle[3].  China,  already,  in  2011  is poised to become the world’s patent leader (Orr, 2010; Thomson  Reuters, 2010). In the future, tired of rising student fees  in the West, and  many local Asian success stories, Asian students stay ‘‘home’’  and  European and  American  students join them.  Initially this  is in the  areas of business, science and  languages but gradually other fields also become major exports. As the Asian Union moves from only East  Asian nations  – the Chinese Diaspora – to include other still developing nations, Asia becomes an educational powerhouse. An Asian credit transfer regime  is created, similar to the EU Bologna process (Kelo, 2006).  Traditional rote learning  paradigms for students and  factory model  pedagogy from Professors is replaced by diverse learning  styles.  Elite Western professors flock to Asia for the higher  salaries. The West  begins to experience their own brain  drain  as  students and  academic  flock to the Asia-Pacific. However, hubris in the West does not allow strategic reactions until too late. Of course, many western universities already have  local branches throughout Asia, but these are bought by large Asian universities seeking to export their services back to the empire. By 2050 Asian universities have  branch campuses throughout Europe, Australia, and even  the United  States. Success creates success. Innovation  creates  Innovation.  Power  creates reality.

 Incremental managerialism – business as  usual

In  this  third  future,  innovations in web  2.0  and   beyond (web  3.0:  mobile,  holograms), globalization, flattening  (democratization) and  the rise of Asia do not dramatically change the nature  of the university. There is incremental change but this does not lead  to a tipping  over to a new future.  Yes, more  Asian universities rise in global  rankings. Yes, there  is far more  delivery over the web.  Yes, mobility becomes central  to pedagogy. Yes, universities accommodate  globalization and states reduce investment in them  except for courses that bring in export earnings. Yes, many  universities become more  sustainable changing how they use energy and redesigning curriculum to be climate change and Gaia sensitive. Yes, a world  green   campus  ranking   takes  off  (green   metrics)   (BBC.com,  2011;   Universitas Indonesia,  2010).  And  yes,  globo  sapiens (Kelly, 2008)  and  cultural  creatives (Ray  and  Anderson, 2000; Tibbs, 2011) gain in strength, and intelligence (Anthony, 2008) becomes far more  integrated. But over  time,  the  university’s one  thousand year  conservative tradition continues. Cautious deans are proven correct: squeeze below, attract high paying  students, remain connected to the alumni and  find expert  researchers who can  bring  in large  dollar grants. Three zones emerge:

1.  The zone  of elite universities that  have  historical  brand recognition – high  fees,  huge endowments and  alumni networks. The world’s leading thought leaders continue to be associated with them.  With vast funds,  they remain above the market,  seeing education as  part of civil society,  as a human  right.

2.  The  zone   of  mass  education. While  this  becomes more   and   more   Asia  based  – demographic dividends in terms  of the ratio of young  people to old  – life long and  life wide  (formal  and   informal  and   creative   mixes)  learning   in  the  West  allows  Western universities to grow as  well.

3.  The  zone  of experimentation. Even  within business-as-usual world,  niche  universities continue to thrive. Technological and  economic disruptions and  value  changes create spaces for new  entrants but  only in niche  areas. These  include  Islamic  universities or programs teaching Islamic  banking, for example, not to mention  the  new ecological – gardens in universities and universities in gardens – knowledge centers. Some  of these experiments move to the mass market  and  become routinized  while others stay  on the cutting edge, challenging the current paradigm.

 What is the right question?

There  are other  possible futures  as  well. In the University in Transformation, we suggested ‘‘Bliss for all’’ as an idealistic  scenario – the world as not just a connected brain but the world as  mind. In this future, education is truly for all and  the planet becomes not just a complex adaptive learning  organization but  a  healing  network  as  well  – learning  for ananda/bliss (Inayatullah  and  Gidley,  2000).  However,  in  2011,  while the  technology for a  world brain appears nearer, the wisdom for a world mind-heart appears further. At best, bliss for the few. And which future will eventuate? This is the wrong question. Which future does my university desire to create? What support – intellectual,  technological, humans and  values – do we need to create this desired future? And finally: in a changing social ecology,  what and where do we maintain  and  sustain and  what and  where do we innovate  and  transform?

About the author

Sohail  Inayatullah   is  Professor  at  the  Graduate Institute   of  Futures   Studies,  Tamkang University,  Taiwan,  and  Centre  of Policing,  Intelligence and  Counter-terrorism, Macquarie University  and  the  University  of the  Sunshine  Coast, Australia.  Sohail  Inayatullah  is  the author-editor of 20  books, ten  special  issues and  over  350  journal  article  and  popular essays.  From  1999-2010, he  was  the  editor  of  the  Journal   of  Futures   Studies.  Sohail Inayatullah  can  be  contacted at: sinayatullah@hotmail.com

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Teachers start protesting hiring allowance today

Dawn:15-Oct-2012
ISLAMABAD, Oct 14: Teachers of model schools and colleges in the capital city have decided to start a protest movement against non-payment of ceiling/hiring allowance for the last over two years, it has been learnt. In the first stage of the protest starting from Monday, the teachers will be wearing black armbands during duty hours and in case there is no response from the authorities concerned, they will stage a sit-in outside the local press club on Friday. And from October 22, they will boycott classes till their demand is met. Riaz Anjum, the president of Central Academic Staff Association, told Dawn that teachers were perturbed over the failure of the Federal Directorate of Education (FDE) andthe Ministry of Capital Administration and Department (CAD) in resolving their issue despite making repeated promises. The teachers say due to non-payment of the hiring allowance, it has become impossible for them to pay rents of their houses. At a meeting on October 12, the representatives of the Academic Staff Association and all model colleges decided that delegations would meet the high-ups of CAD and the FDE to apprise them of their problems. `If the demands are not fulfilled by Monday, the teachers will boycott classes,` he said. Besides Mr Anjum, teachers` representatives, including Altaf Hussain, Mehboob Ahmed, Hafeezur Rehman, Murad Ali Khan, Naveed Anjum and Amanullah attended the meeting. Mr Anjum added: `Delay in pay-ment started in 2009 when the teachers were told by the authorities concerned that the funds reserved for the ceiling allowance would be utilised to help the flood-affected people.After that, however, the management did not allocate funds for the ceiling allowance. He said the meeting demanded that 100 per cent hiring should be paid to all those who have been waiting for it for the last two years. Hiring should also be granted to all those who have apphed and are on the waiting list, he added. Amanullah Bhutto, a teacher at the Islamabad College for Boys, G6/3, said he had been living in a rented portion of a house at Rawal Town for the last two years. `My ceiling allowance is Rs14,105 and I have to pay Rs17,000 rent to the house owner. I pay Rs2,895 from my pocket but the FDE has not released the ceiling al-lowance for the last two years,` he complained. He said the owner can issue him notice to vacate the house ant time. On the other hand, he added, his marriage ceremony was scheduled to be held in January but he was not sure whether by that time he would have a house to live in with his wife. Most of the teachers have similar stories but the education department is doing nothing for them, he added. When contacted, FDE spokesman Waqar Ashraf said the federal government had been facing financial crunch due to which the problems were increasing. In the current fiscal year, the FDE got some funds which were not sufficient to pay the ceiling allowance to all the teachers.

`We are trying to get more fund and resolve the issue and after that house rents will be paid after every six months,` he said.